Mathematizing Darwin

Ernst Mayr called the first part of the evolutionary synthesis the ‘Fisherian synthesis’ on account of the dominant role played by R.A. Fisher in forging a mathematical theory of natural selection together with J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright in the decade 1922–1932. It is here argued that Fisher’s contribution relied on a close reading of Darwin’s work to a much greater extent than did the contributions of Haldane and Wright, that it was synthetic in contrast to their analytic approach and that it was greatly influenced by his friendship with the Darwin family, particularly with Charles’s son Leonard

Quantum Measurement and the Aharonov-Bohm Effect with Superposed Magnetic Fluxes

We consider the magnetic flux in a quantum mechanical superposition of two values and find that the Aharonov-Bohm effect interference pattern contains information about the nature of the superposition, allowing information about the state of the flux to be extracted without disturbance. The information is obtained without transfer of energy or momentum and by accumulated nonlocal interactions of the vector potential $\vec{A}$ with many charged particles forming the interference pattern, rather than with a single particle. We suggest an experimental test using already experimentally realized superposed currents in a superconducting ring and discuss broader implications.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; Changes from version 3: corrected typo (not present in versions 1 and 2) in Eq. 8; Changes from version 2: shortened abstract; added refs and material in Section IV. The final publication is available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11128-013-0652-

The strike rate index: a new index for journal quality based on journal size and the h-index of citations

Quantifying the impact of scientific research is almost always controversial, and there is a need for a uniform method that can be applied across all fields. Increasingly, however, the quantification has been summed up in the impact factor of the journal in which the work is published, which is known to show differences between fields. Here the h-index, a way to summarize an individual's highly cited work, was calculated for journals over a twenty year time span and compared to the size of the journal in four fields, Agriculture, Condensed Matter Physics, Genetics and Heredity and Mathematical Physics. There is a linear log-log relationship between the h-index and the size of the journal: the larger the journal, the more likely it is to have a high h-index. The four fields cannot be separated from each other suggesting that this relationship applies to all fields. A strike rate index (SRI) based on the log relationship of the h-index and the size of the journal shows a similar distribution in the four fields, with similar thresholds for quality, allowing journals across diverse fields to be compared to each other. The SRI explains more than four times the variation in citation counts compared to the impact factor

Maximum Parsimony on Phylogenetic networks

Abstract Background Phylogenetic networks are generalizations of phylogenetic trees, that are used to model evolutionary events in various contexts. Several different methods and criteria have been introduced for reconstructing phylogenetic trees. Maximum Parsimony is a character-based approach that infers a phylogenetic tree by minimizing the total number of evolutionary steps required to explain a given set of data assigned on the leaves. Exact solutions for optimizing parsimony scores on phylogenetic trees have been introduced in the past. Results In this paper, we define the parsimony score on networks as the sum of the substitution costs along all the edges of the network; and show that certain well-known algorithms that calculate the optimum parsimony score on trees, such as Sankoff and Fitch algorithms extend naturally for networks, barring conflicting assignments at the reticulate vertices. We provide heuristics for finding the optimum parsimony scores on networks. Our algorithms can be applied for any cost matrix that may contain unequal substitution costs of transforming between different characters along different edges of the network. We analyzed this for experimental data on 10 leaves or fewer with at most 2 reticulations and found that for almost all networks, the bounds returned by the heuristics matched with the exhaustively determined optimum parsimony scores. Conclusion The parsimony score we define here does not directly reflect the cost of the best tree in the network that displays the evolution of the character. However, when searching for the most parsimonious network that describes a collection of characters, it becomes necessary to add additional cost considerations to prefer simpler structures, such as trees over networks. The parsimony score on a network that we describe here takes into account the substitution costs along the additional edges incident on each reticulate vertex, in addition to the substitution costs along the other edges which are common to all the branching patterns introduced by the reticulate vertices. Thus the score contains an in-built cost for the number of reticulate vertices in the network, and would provide a criterion that is comparable among all networks. Although the problem of finding the parsimony score on the network is believed to be computationally hard to solve, heuristics such as the ones described here would be beneficial in our efforts to find a most parsimonious network.</p

Evolution of Robustness to Noise and Mutation in Gene Expression Dynamics

Phenotype of biological systems needs to be robust against mutation in order to sustain themselves between generations. On the other hand, phenotype of an individual also needs to be robust against fluctuations of both internal and external origins that are encountered during growth and development. Is there a relationship between these two types of robustness, one during a single generation and the other during evolution? Could stochasticity in gene expression have any relevance to the evolution of these robustness? Robustness can be defined by the sharpness of the distribution of phenotype; the variance of phenotype distribution due to genetic variation gives a measure of `genetic robustness' while that of isogenic individuals gives a measure of `developmental robustness'. Through simulations of a simple stochastic gene expression network that undergoes mutation and selection, we show that in order for the network to acquire both types of robustness, the phenotypic variance induced by mutations must be smaller than that observed in an isogenic population. As the latter originates from noise in gene expression, this signifies that the genetic robustness evolves only when the noise strength in gene expression is larger than some threshold. In such a case, the two variances decrease throughout the evolutionary time course, indicating increase in robustness. The results reveal how noise that cells encounter during growth and development shapes networks' robustness to stochasticity in gene expression, which in turn shapes networks' robustness to mutation. The condition for evolution of robustness as well as relationship between genetic and developmental robustness is derived through the variance of phenotypic fluctuations, which are measurable experimentally.Comment: 25 page

Interpretation of evidence in data by untrained medical students: a scenario-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine which approach to assessment of evidence in data - statistical tests or likelihood ratios - comes closest to the interpretation of evidence by untrained medical students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Empirical study of medical students (N = 842), untrained in statistical inference or in the interpretation of diagnostic tests. They were asked to interpret a hypothetical diagnostic test, presented in four versions that differed in the distributions of test scores in diseased and non-diseased populations. Each student received only one version. The intuitive application of the statistical test approach would lead to rejecting the null hypothesis of no disease in version A, and to accepting the null in version B. Application of the likelihood ratio approach led to opposite conclusions - against the disease in A, and in favour of disease in B. Version C tested the importance of the p-value (A: 0.04 versus C: 0.08) and version D the importance of the likelihood ratio (C: 1/4 versus D: 1/8).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In version A, 7.5% concluded that the result was in favour of disease (compatible with p value), 43.6% ruled against the disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), and 48.9% were undecided. In version B, 69.0% were in favour of disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), 4.5% against (compatible with p value), and 26.5% undecided. Increasing the p value from 0.04 to 0.08 did not change the results. The change in the likelihood ratio from 1/4 to 1/8 increased the proportion of non-committed responses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most untrained medical students appear to interpret evidence from data in a manner that is compatible with the use of likelihood ratios.</p

The statistical neuroanatomy of frontal networks in the macaque

We were interested in gaining insight into the functional properties of frontal networks based upon their anatomical inputs. We took a neuroinformatics approach, carrying out maximum likelihood hierarchical cluster analysis on 25 frontal cortical areas based upon their anatomical connections, with 68 input areas representing exterosensory, chemosensory, motor, limbic, and other frontal inputs. The analysis revealed a set of statistically robust clusters. We used these clusters to divide the frontal areas into 5 groups, including ventral-lateral, ventral-medial, dorsal-medial, dorsal-lateral, and caudal-orbital groups. Each of these groups was defined by a unique set of inputs. This organization provides insight into the differential roles of each group of areas and suggests a gradient by which orbital and ventral-medial areas may be responsible for decision-making processes based on emotion and primary reinforcers, and lateral frontal areas are more involved in integrating affective and rational information into a common framework

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Evaluating Gene Expression Dynamics Using Pairwise RNA FISH Data

Recently, a novel approach has been developed to study gene expression in single cells with high time resolution using RNA Fluorescent In Situ Hybridization (FISH). The technique allows individual mRNAs to be counted with high accuracy in wild-type cells, but requires cells to be fixed; thus, each cell provides only a “snapshot” of gene expression. Here we show how and when RNA FISH data on pairs of genes can be used to reconstruct real-time dynamics from a collection of such snapshots. Using maximum-likelihood parameter estimation on synthetically generated, noisy FISH data, we show that dynamical programs of gene expression, such as cycles (e.g., the cell cycle) or switches between discrete states, can be accurately reconstructed. In the limit that mRNAs are produced in short-lived bursts, binary thresholding of the FISH data provides a robust way of reconstructing dynamics. In this regime, prior knowledge of the type of dynamics – cycle versus switch – is generally required and additional constraints, e.g., from triplet FISH measurements, may also be needed to fully constrain all parameters. As a demonstration, we apply the thresholding method to RNA FISH data obtained from single, unsynchronized cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results support the existence of metabolic cycles and provide an estimate of global gene-expression noise. The approach to FISH data presented here can be applied in general to reconstruct dynamics from snapshots of pairs of correlated quantities including, for example, protein concentrations obtained from immunofluorescence assays